As Europe and the United States are reorganizing their support for Ukraine, the announcement on Monday, November 17, of the signing of a letter of intent for the sale of Rafale fighter jets to Ukraine, during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ninth visit to France, marked a dramatic development. But, the funding, production and operation of these acquisitions remain highly uncertain.

According to details provided by the Elysée Palace on Monday, the letter of intent outlined plans for the Ukrainian Air Force to acquire around 100 French-made Rafale jets with associated weaponry, new-generation SAMP-T surface-to-air defense systems, as well as drones and new batches of AASM bombs, which can already be launched from Ukraine’s Soviet-made fighter aircraft. It is an extremely ambitious list. These weapons would supplement the ongoing transfer of Mirage aircraft. Of the six planes promised to Kyiv in June 2024, at least three have been delivered since the start of 2025.

At this stage, the deal is nothing but a “reciprocal political commitment,” the Elysée immediately recognized on Monday. Like all letters of intent – referred to as “LOIs” in defense jargon – the one signed with Ukraine was not a formal contract, but simply the officialization of ongoing negotiations. In the field of armaments, many LOIs never come to fruition, or only after many years. “The declaration of intent is deliberately looking ahead to a timeframe of about 10 years, with acquisition projects staggered over time,” the Elysée also said.

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