The choreography is familiar. The president of the United States advances to cheers from his supporters after being formally announced by the sergeant at arms of the House of Representatives. He then claims that the country’s situation has greatly improved since he took office, acknowledges the presence in the galleries of guests invited to illustrate his points, while his opponents make it clear they believe precisely the opposite.

Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday, February 24, followed all the usual protocol, but did nothing to dispel the background concerns: the unknowns of a potential new war with Iran, which two months ago was not even on the table, the substance of White House policy, and the resilience of American institutions. A year after his return, Trump remains the president of instability and uncertainty, but increasingly to his own detriment, as demonstrated by his recent backtracking on the brutal methods of immigration agents.

An attack on an Iranian regime entrenched in obstinacy appears inevitable, given the military buildup near Iran’s coasts. If it happens, it will be without Congress having a say, even though it is the only body empowered by the Constitution to declare war, and without the aims of the war having been defined and presented in advance to the American public. The people, whose voice the White House constantly invokes, are asked to agree without saying anything. With Trump, the “fog of war” becomes a coin toss, depending on the moment.

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