War of nerves, hybrid war or outright war? The surge in drone overflights across several European countries, as well as incursions by Russian fighter jets into Estonian airspace, has fueled debate over the nature and gravity of the threat Moscow poses to Europe. With each incident attributed to Moscow, Europeans have realized that the conflict has spread beyond Ukrainian territory, more than three years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. They have since tried to adjust their vocabulary and doctrine, exercising great caution to avoid panicking the public as well as to prevent any risk of escalation.

Although France has not been targeted by these incursions to date, Emmanuel Macron now speaks of a “permanent confrontation” with Russia, which he considers, “apart from terrorism,” as “the greatest structural threat to Europeans.” It is a threat that was “long underestimated,” but not yet an enemy in the language used by the French president. “Drones that would violate our territories are taking a big risk. They can be destroyed, full stop,” said Macron. Still, he refrained from referring to the situation as a “war” between Moscow and the European continent. “We no longer move overnight from a state of peace to a state of war,” he told the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on October 1.

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